Lorca Deportiva 5–1 Algar: Result & Stats

Lorca Deportiva

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Algar

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lorca Deportiva68%

×Draw20%

Algar12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lorca DeportivaExpected goals in this matchAlgar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.70

Lorca Deportiva

2.02

Algar

0.70

Lorca Deportiva creates 189% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

2.11

creates per match

0.65

0.75

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva

2.11

Algar

0.65

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva

0.75

Algar

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Algar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

Algar →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw

88%

Lorca Deportiva or Algar

80%

Draw or Algar

32%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+

43%

Algar wins by 2+

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals

87%

Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals

60%

Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals

33%

Algar 1+ goals

50%

Algar 2+ goals

16%

Algar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)

85%

Algar (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

Algar away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + Algar defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.02

Algar attack 0.65 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more

68%

level

20%

Algar scores more

12%

Lorca Deportiva at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff