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Algar vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Algar
Algar
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
2/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio Sánchez Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Algar25%
×Draw24%
Lorca Deportiva52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algar
1.12
Lorca Deportiva
1.73

Lorca Deportiva creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

Algar
1.18
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Algar
1.88
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Algar+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algar ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Algar or draw
48%
Algar or Lorca Deportiva
76%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
75%

Winning margin

Algar wins by 2+
9%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Algar 1+ goals
67%
Algar 2+ goals
31%
Algar 3+ goals
10%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
82%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
52%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Algar (draw refunded)
32%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algar at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algar attack 1.18 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Algar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Algar scores more
25%
level
24%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
52%

Lorca Deportiva at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Algar 1–3 Lorca Deportiva

Lorca Deportiva beat Algar 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Sánchez Luengo in El Algar.