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Longford Town vs Limerick — First Division 2019

Longford Town
Longford Town
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Limerick
Limerick
4/27/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 10City Calling Stadium (Longford Town)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Longford Town52%
×Draw24%
Limerick24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Longford Town
1.67
Limerick
1.04

Longford Town creates 61% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 13 away

creates per match

Longford Town
1.33
Limerick
0.85

allows per match

Longford Town
1.23
Limerick
2.00

finishing

Longford Town+0.00on par
Limerick+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Longford Town ↓

Limerick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Longford Town or draw
76%
Longford Town or Limerick
76%
Draw or Limerick
48%

Winning margin

Longford Town wins by 2+
28%
Limerick wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Longford Town 1+ goals
81%
Longford Town 2+ goals
50%
Longford Town 3+ goals
23%
Limerick 1+ goals
65%
Limerick 2+ goals
28%
Limerick 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Longford Town (draw refunded)
69%
Limerick (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Longford Town at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 104 matches

Limerick away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Longford Town attack 1.33 + Limerick defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Limerick attack 0.85 + Longford Town defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Longford Town scores more
52%
level
24%
Limerick scores more
24%

Longford Town at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Longford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Longford Town 1–0 Limerick

Longford Town beat Limerick 1-0 in First Division on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at City Calling Stadium (Longford Town).