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Limerick vs Longford Town — First Division 2019

Limerick
Limerick
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Longford Town
Longford Town
2/22/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 1Markets Field (Limerick)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Limerick47%
×Draw25%
Longford Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limerick
1.56
Longford Town
1.15

Limerick creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 109 away

creates per match

Limerick
1.57
Longford Town
1.22

allows per match

Limerick
1.07
Longford Town
1.55

finishing

Limerick+0.00on par
Longford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limerick ↓

Longford Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Limerick or draw
72%
Limerick or Longford Town
75%
Draw or Longford Town
53%

Winning margin

Limerick wins by 2+
24%
Longford Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Limerick 1+ goals
79%
Limerick 2+ goals
46%
Limerick 3+ goals
21%
Longford Town 1+ goals
68%
Longford Town 2+ goals
32%
Longford Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Limerick (draw refunded)
62%
Longford Town (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limerick at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Longford Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.55 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limerick attack 1.57 + Longford Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Longford Town attack 1.22 + Limerick defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Limerick scores more
47%
level
25%
Longford Town scores more
28%

Limerick at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Limerick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Limerick 0–0 Longford Town

Limerick and Longford Town drew 0-0 in First Division on February 22, 2019.

The match was played at Markets Field (Limerick).