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Longford Town vs Dundalk — First Division 2019

Longford Town
Longford Town
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Dundalk
Dundalk
4/26/2025First DivisionFirst Division · Round 12Bishopsgate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Longford Town26%
×Draw26%
Dundalk48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Longford Town
1.02
Dundalk
1.50

Dundalk creates 47% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 18 away

creates per match

Longford Town
1.33
Dundalk
1.78

allows per match

Longford Town
1.23
Dundalk
0.72

finishing

Longford Town+0.00on par
Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Longford Town ↓

Dundalk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Longford Town or draw
52%
Longford Town or Dundalk
74%
Draw or Dundalk
74%

Winning margin

Longford Town wins by 2+
9%
Dundalk wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Longford Town 1+ goals
64%
Longford Town 2+ goals
27%
Longford Town 3+ goals
8%
Dundalk 1+ goals
78%
Dundalk 2+ goals
44%
Dundalk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Longford Town (draw refunded)
35%
Dundalk (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Longford Town at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 104 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Longford Town attack 1.33 + Dundalk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.02

Dundalk attack 1.78 + Longford Town defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Longford Town scores more
26%
level
26%
Dundalk scores more
48%

Dundalk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Longford Town 0–3 Dundalk

Dundalk beat Longford Town 3-0 in First Division on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Bishopsgate in Longford.