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Dundalk vs Longford Town — First Division 2019

Dundalk
Dundalk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Longford Town
Longford Town
3/21/2025First DivisionFirst Division · Round 6Oriel Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dundalk57%
×Draw22%
Longford Town21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundalk
1.94
Longford Town
1.11

Dundalk creates 75% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 109 away

creates per match

Dundalk
2.33
Longford Town
1.22

allows per match

Dundalk
1.00
Longford Town
1.55

finishing

Dundalk+0.00on par
Longford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Longford Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw
79%
Dundalk or Longford Town
78%
Draw or Longford Town
43%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+
33%
Longford Town wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals
86%
Dundalk 2+ goals
58%
Dundalk 3+ goals
30%
Longford Town 1+ goals
67%
Longford Town 2+ goals
30%
Longford Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)
72%
Longford Town (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Longford Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.55 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 2.33 + Longford Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

Longford Town attack 1.22 + Dundalk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dundalk scores more
57%
level
22%
Longford Town scores more
21%

Dundalk at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Dundalk 2–1 Longford Town

Dundalk beat Longford Town 2-1 in First Division on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Oriel Park in Dundalk.