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Longford Town vs Athlone Town — First Division 2019

Longford Town
Longford Town
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Athlone Town
Athlone Town
6/23/2025First DivisionFirst Division · Round 20Bishopsgate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Longford Town48%
×Draw25%
Athlone Town27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Longford Town
1.60
Athlone Town
1.14

Longford Town creates 40% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 119 away

creates per match

Longford Town
1.33
Athlone Town
1.04

allows per match

Longford Town
1.23
Athlone Town
1.88

finishing

Longford Town+0.00on par
Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Longford Town ↓

Athlone Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Longford Town or draw
73%
Longford Town or Athlone Town
75%
Draw or Athlone Town
52%

Winning margin

Longford Town wins by 2+
25%
Athlone Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Longford Town 1+ goals
80%
Longford Town 2+ goals
47%
Longford Town 3+ goals
22%
Athlone Town 1+ goals
68%
Athlone Town 2+ goals
32%
Athlone Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Longford Town (draw refunded)
64%
Athlone Town (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Longford Town at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 104 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Longford Town attack 1.33 + Athlone Town defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Longford Town defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Longford Town scores more
48%
level
25%
Athlone Town scores more
27%

Longford Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Longford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Longford Town 3–2 Athlone Town

Longford Town beat Athlone Town 3-2 in First Division on June 23, 2025.

The match was played at Bishopsgate in Longford.