Athlone Town 2–0 Longford Town: Result & Stats

Athlone Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Longford Town

4/6/2026

First Division · Round 9Athlone Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Athlone Town37%

×Draw25%

Longford Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athlone TownExpected goals in this matchLongford Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.48

Athlone Town

1.45

Longford Town

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 109 away

1.35

creates per match

1.22

1.73

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Athlone Town

1.35

Longford Town

1.22

allows per match

Athlone Town

1.73

Longford Town

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athlone Town+0.00on par

Longford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athlone Town ↓

Longford Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Athlone Town or draw

62%

Athlone Town or Longford Town

75%

Draw or Longford Town

63%

Winning margin

Athlone Town wins by 2+

17%

Longford Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Athlone Town 1+ goals

77%

Athlone Town 2+ goals

42%

Athlone Town 3+ goals

18%

Longford Town 1+ goals

77%

Longford Town 2+ goals

43%

Longford Town 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Athlone Town (draw refunded)

49%

Longford Town (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athlone Town at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.73 · 120 matches

Longford Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.55 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athlone Town attack 1.35 + Longford Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Longford Town attack 1.22 + Athlone Town defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Athlone Town scores more

37%

level

25%

Longford Town scores more

38%

Longford Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Longford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff