Longford Town 2–0 Athlone Town: Result & Stats

Longford Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Athlone Town

M. Barker 54'

D. Craven 47'

4/9/2022

First Division · Round 9Bishopsgate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Longford Town48%

×Draw25%

Athlone Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Longford TownExpected goals in this matchAthlone Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.14

Longford Town

1.60

Athlone Town

1.14

Longford Town creates 40% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 119 away

1.32

creates per match

1.04

1.24

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Longford Town

1.32

Athlone Town

1.04

allows per match

Longford Town

1.24

Athlone Town

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Longford Town+0.00on par

Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Longford Town ↓

Athlone Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Longford Town or draw

73%

Longford Town or Athlone Town

75%

Draw or Athlone Town

52%

Winning margin

Longford Town wins by 2+

25%

Athlone Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Longford Town 1+ goals

80%

Longford Town 2+ goals

47%

Longford Town 3+ goals

22%

Athlone Town 1+ goals

68%

Athlone Town 2+ goals

32%

Athlone Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Longford Town (draw refunded)

64%

Athlone Town (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Longford Town at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 105 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.89 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Longford Town attack 1.32 + Athlone Town defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Longford Town defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Longford Town scores more

48%

level

25%

Athlone Town scores more

27%

Longford Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Longford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

D. Craven

54'

M. Barker

63'

D. Daly← C. Ubaezuonu

63'

S. Edogun← T. Oluwa

63'

Y. Habing← G. Armstrong

76'

K. Chambers← A. Robinson

85'

M. O’Brien← S. Verdon

86'

Q. Nkansah← O. Duffy

90'

M. Butler← R. Graydon

Longford

Athlone

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: G. Cronin

76'▲K. Chambers←▼A. Robinson

85'▲M. O’Brien←▼S. Verdon

90'▲M. Butler←▼R. Graydon

Longford Town substitutes

ChambersO’BrienButlerHaydenPowerSteacyDunneMcDonnell

Manager: M. Russell

63'▲D. Daly←▼C. Ubaezuonu

63'▲S. Edogun←▼T. Oluwa

63'▲Y. Habing←▼G. Armstrong

86'▲Q. Nkansah←▼O. Duffy

Athlone Town substitutes

DalyEdogunHabingNkansahConnollySkerrittCurtinDobbinBarnes

Match Recap: Longford Town vs Athlone Town

Longford Town beat Athlone Town 2-0 in First Division on April 9, 2022.

Goals: D. Craven (47'), M. Barker (54').

The match was played at Bishopsgate Stadium in Longford Town.

Longford Town vs Athlone Town — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Longford Town vs Athlone Town