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Long Island Rough Riders vs FA Euro New York — USL League Two 2018

Long Island Rough Riders
Long Island Rough Riders
FT
2 – 1
FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
7/12/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 51Hofstra Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Long Island Rough Riders66%
×Draw19%
FA Euro New York15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long Island Rough Riders
2.33
FA Euro New York
1.02

Long Island Rough Riders creates 128% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 25 away

creates per match

Long Island Rough Riders
2.41
FA Euro New York
1.16

allows per match

Long Island Rough Riders
0.89
FA Euro New York
2.24

finishing

Long Island Rough Riders+0.00on par
FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long Island Rough Riders ↓

FA Euro New York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Long Island Rough Riders or draw
85%
Long Island Rough Riders or FA Euro New York
81%
Draw or FA Euro New York
34%

Winning margin

Long Island Rough Riders wins by 2+
43%
FA Euro New York wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Long Island Rough Riders 1+ goals
90%
Long Island Rough Riders 2+ goals
67%
Long Island Rough Riders 3+ goals
41%
FA Euro New York 1+ goals
64%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
27%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Long Island Rough Riders (draw refunded)
81%
FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long Island Rough Riders at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.89 · 44 matches

FA Euro New York away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long Island Rough Riders attack 2.41 + FA Euro New York defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.33

FA Euro New York attack 1.16 + Long Island Rough Riders defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Long Island Rough Riders scores more
66%
level
19%
FA Euro New York scores more
15%

Long Island Rough Riders at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Long Island Rough Riders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Long Island Rough Riders 2–1 FA Euro New York

Long Island Rough Riders beat FA Euro New York 2-1 in USL League Two on July 12, 2021.

The match was played at Hofstra Soccer Stadium in Hempstead, New York.