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FA Euro New York vs Long Island Rough Riders — USL League Two 2018

FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Long Island Rough Riders
Long Island Rough Riders
5/25/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Eastern Conference - 5Poly Prep Country Day School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FA Euro New York23%
×Draw23%
Long Island Rough Riders54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Euro New York
1.10
Long Island Rough Riders
1.80

Long Island Rough Riders creates 64% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 49 away

creates per match

FA Euro New York
1.27
Long Island Rough Riders
2.37

allows per match

FA Euro New York
1.23
Long Island Rough Riders
0.94

finishing

FA Euro New York+0.00on par
Long Island Rough Riders+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Euro New York ↓

Long Island Rough Riders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FA Euro New York or draw
46%
FA Euro New York or Long Island Rough Riders
77%
Draw or Long Island Rough Riders
77%

Winning margin

FA Euro New York wins by 2+
9%
Long Island Rough Riders wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

FA Euro New York 1+ goals
67%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
30%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
10%
Long Island Rough Riders 1+ goals
83%
Long Island Rough Riders 2+ goals
54%
Long Island Rough Riders 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
30%
Long Island Rough Riders (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Euro New York at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Long Island Rough Riders away — creates 2.37, concedes 0.94 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Euro New York attack 1.27 + Long Island Rough Riders defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Long Island Rough Riders attack 2.37 + FA Euro New York defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FA Euro New York scores more
23%
level
23%
Long Island Rough Riders scores more
54%

Long Island Rough Riders at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Long Island Rough Riders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FA Euro New York vs Long Island Rough Riders

Long Island Rough Riders beat FA Euro New York 2-0 in USL League Two on May 25, 2023.

The match was played at Poly Prep Country Day School in New York City.