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Dollingstown vs Newington Youth — Premier Intermediate League 2018

Dollingstown
Dollingstown
FT
1 – 3
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
9/22/2018Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 3Planters Park (Lurgan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dollingstown51%
×Draw20%
Newington Youth29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dollingstown
2.33
Newington Youth
1.75

Dollingstown creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dollingstown
3.67
Newington Youth
1.83

allows per match

Dollingstown
1.67
Newington Youth
1.00

finishing

Dollingstown+0.00on par
Newington Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dollingstown ↓

Newington Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Dollingstown or draw
71%
Dollingstown or Newington Youth
80%
Draw or Newington Youth
49%

Winning margin

Dollingstown wins by 2+
31%
Newington Youth wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dollingstown 1+ goals
90%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
67%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
41%
Newington Youth 1+ goals
83%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
52%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dollingstown (draw refunded)
63%
Newington Youth (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dollingstown at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Newington Youth away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dollingstown attack 3.67 + Newington Youth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Newington Youth attack 1.83 + Dollingstown defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dollingstown scores more
51%
level
20%
Newington Youth scores more
29%

Dollingstown at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dollingstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dollingstown vs Newington Youth

Newington Youth beat Dollingstown 3-1 in Premier Intermediate League on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Planters Park (Lurgan).