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Long An vs Hòa Bình — V.League 2 2020

Long An
Long An
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hòa Bình
Hòa Bình
12/23/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 8Sân vận động Long An

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Long An46%
×Draw30%
Hòa Bình24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long An
1.23
Hòa Bình
0.81

Long An creates 52% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 29 away

creates per match

Long An
1.33
Hòa Bình
0.62

allows per match

Long An
1.00
Hòa Bình
1.14

finishing

Long An+0.00on par
Hòa Bình+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Hòa Bình →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Long An or draw
76%
Long An or Hòa Bình
70%
Draw or Hòa Bình
54%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+
21%
Hòa Bình wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals
71%
Long An 2+ goals
35%
Long An 3+ goals
13%
Hòa Bình 1+ goals
56%
Hòa Bình 2+ goals
19%
Hòa Bình 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)
65%
Hòa Bình (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Hòa Bình away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 1.33 + Hòa Bình defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hòa Bình attack 0.62 + Long An defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Long An scores more
46%
level
30%
Hòa Bình scores more
24%

Long An at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Long An vs Hòa Bình

Long An and Hòa Bình drew 1-1 in V.League 2 on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long An in Tan An.