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Hòa Bình vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Hòa Bình
Hòa Bình
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Long An
Long An
2/16/2025V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 9Sân Vận Động Hòa Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hòa Bình45%
×Draw30%
Long An25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hòa Bình
1.20
Long An
0.80

Hòa Bình creates 50% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 62 away

creates per match

Hòa Bình
0.86
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Hòa Bình
0.72
Long An
1.53

finishing

Hòa Bình+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hòa Bình ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hòa Bình or draw
75%
Hòa Bình or Long An
70%
Draw or Long An
55%

Winning margin

Hòa Bình wins by 2+
20%
Long An wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hòa Bình 1+ goals
70%
Hòa Bình 2+ goals
34%
Hòa Bình 3+ goals
12%
Long An 1+ goals
55%
Long An 2+ goals
19%
Long An 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hòa Bình (draw refunded)
65%
Long An (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hòa Bình at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.72 · 29 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hòa Bình attack 0.86 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.20

Long An attack 0.89 + Hòa Bình defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hòa Bình scores more
45%
level
30%
Long An scores more
25%

Hòa Bình at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hòa Bình will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Hòa Bình 0–0 Long An

Hòa Bình and Long An drew 0-0 in V.League 2 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Sân Vận Động Hòa Bình in Hòa Bình.