Long An 1–2 Dong Thap: Result & Stats

Long An

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dong Thap

1/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Long An49%

×Draw20%

Dong Thap31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Long AnExpected goals in this matchDong Thap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.83

Long An

2.33

Dong Thap

1.83

Long An creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Long An

3.00

Dong Thap

2.00

allows per match

Long An

1.67

Dong Thap

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Long An+0.00on par

Dong Thap+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Dong Thap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Long An or draw

69%

Long An or Dong Thap

80%

Draw or Dong Thap

51%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+

30%

Dong Thap wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals

90%

Long An 2+ goals

67%

Long An 3+ goals

41%

Dong Thap 1+ goals

84%

Dong Thap 2+ goals

54%

Dong Thap 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)

61%

Dong Thap (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Dong Thap away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 3.00 + Dong Thap defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Dong Thap attack 2.00 + Long An defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Long An scores more

49%

level

20%

Dong Thap scores more

31%

Long An at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff