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Dong Thap vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Dong Thap
Dong Thap
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Long An
Long An
4/6/2025V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 13Sân vận động Cao Lãnh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dong Thap47%
×Draw29%
Long An25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dong Thap
1.29
Long An
0.85

Dong Thap creates 52% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dong Thap
1.05
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Dong Thap
0.82
Long An
1.53

finishing

Dong Thap+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dong Thap ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dong Thap or draw
75%
Dong Thap or Long An
71%
Draw or Long An
53%

Winning margin

Dong Thap wins by 2+
22%
Long An wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dong Thap 1+ goals
72%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
37%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
14%
Long An 1+ goals
57%
Long An 2+ goals
21%
Long An 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dong Thap (draw refunded)
66%
Long An (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dong Thap at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dong Thap attack 1.05 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Long An attack 0.89 + Dong Thap defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dong Thap scores more
47%
level
29%
Long An scores more
25%

Dong Thap at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dong Thap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dong Thap vs Long An

Dong Thap beat Long An 2-0 in V.League 2 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Sân vận động Cao Lãnh in Cao Lanh.