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Long An vs Dong Thap — V.League 2 2020

Long An
Long An
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dong Thap
Dong Thap
3/2/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 11Sân vận động Long An

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Long An50%
×Draw28%
Dong Thap22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long An
1.35
Dong Thap
0.80

Long An creates 69% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 40 away

creates per match

Long An
1.33
Dong Thap
0.60

allows per match

Long An
1.00
Dong Thap
1.38

finishing

Long An+0.00on par
Dong Thap+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Dong Thap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Long An or draw
78%
Long An or Dong Thap
72%
Draw or Dong Thap
50%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+
24%
Dong Thap wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals
74%
Long An 2+ goals
39%
Long An 3+ goals
15%
Dong Thap 1+ goals
55%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
19%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)
69%
Dong Thap (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Dong Thap away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 1.33 + Dong Thap defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dong Thap attack 0.60 + Long An defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Long An scores more
50%
level
28%
Dong Thap scores more
22%

Long An at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Long An 1–0 Dong Thap

Long An beat Dong Thap 1-0 in V.League 2 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long An in Tan An.