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Long An vs Can Tho — V.League 2 2020

Long An
Long An
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Can Tho
Can Tho
8/12/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 11Sân vận động Long An

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Long An51%
×Draw25%
Can Tho25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long An
1.64
Can Tho
1.07

Long An creates 53% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 22 away

creates per match

Long An
1.33
Can Tho
1.14

allows per match

Long An
1.00
Can Tho
1.95

finishing

Long An+0.00on par
Can Tho+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Can Tho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Long An or draw
75%
Long An or Can Tho
75%
Draw or Can Tho
49%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+
27%
Can Tho wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals
81%
Long An 2+ goals
49%
Long An 3+ goals
23%
Can Tho 1+ goals
66%
Can Tho 2+ goals
29%
Can Tho 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)
67%
Can Tho (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Can Tho away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 1.33 + Can Tho defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.64

Can Tho attack 1.14 + Long An defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Long An scores more
51%
level
25%
Can Tho scores more
25%

Long An at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Long An 2–1 Can Tho

Long An beat Can Tho 2-1 in V.League 2 on August 12, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long An in Tan An.