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Can Tho vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Can Tho
Can Tho
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Long An
Long An
9/23/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 15Sân vận động Cần Thơ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Can Tho41%
×Draw27%
Long An32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Can Tho
1.33
Long An
1.15

Can Tho creates 16% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 62 away

creates per match

Can Tho
1.14
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Can Tho
1.41
Long An
1.53

finishing

Can Tho+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Can Tho ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Can Tho or draw
68%
Can Tho or Long An
73%
Draw or Long An
59%

Winning margin

Can Tho wins by 2+
19%
Long An wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Can Tho 1+ goals
74%
Can Tho 2+ goals
38%
Can Tho 3+ goals
15%
Long An 1+ goals
68%
Long An 2+ goals
32%
Long An 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Can Tho (draw refunded)
56%
Long An (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Can Tho at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Can Tho attack 1.14 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Long An attack 0.89 + Can Tho defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Can Tho scores more
41%
level
27%
Long An scores more
32%

Can Tho at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Can Tho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Can Tho vs Long An

Long An beat Can Tho 6-1 in V.League 2 on September 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Cần Thơ in Can Tho.