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Long An vs Binh Thuan — V.League 2 2020

Long An
Long An
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Binh Thuan
Binh Thuan
8/7/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 15Sân vận động Long An

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Long An55%
×Draw22%
Binh Thuan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long An
1.89
Binh Thuan
1.11

Long An creates 70% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 9 away

creates per match

Long An
1.33
Binh Thuan
1.22

allows per match

Long An
1.00
Binh Thuan
2.44

finishing

Long An+0.00on par
Binh Thuan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Binh Thuan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Long An or draw
78%
Long An or Binh Thuan
78%
Draw or Binh Thuan
45%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+
32%
Binh Thuan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals
85%
Long An 2+ goals
56%
Long An 3+ goals
29%
Binh Thuan 1+ goals
67%
Binh Thuan 2+ goals
30%
Binh Thuan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)
71%
Binh Thuan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Binh Thuan away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 1.33 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Binh Thuan attack 1.22 + Long An defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Long An scores more
55%
level
22%
Binh Thuan scores more
22%

Long An at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Long An vs Binh Thuan

Long An beat Binh Thuan 4-1 in V.League 2 on August 7, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long An in Tan An.