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Binh Thuan vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Binh Thuan
Binh Thuan
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Long An
Long An
4/16/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 3Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Binh Thuan33%
×Draw24%
Long An43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Thuan
1.43
Long An
1.67

Long An creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 62 away

creates per match

Binh Thuan
1.33
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Binh Thuan
2.44
Long An
1.53

finishing

Binh Thuan+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Thuan ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Binh Thuan or draw
57%
Binh Thuan or Long An
76%
Draw or Long An
67%

Winning margin

Binh Thuan wins by 2+
15%
Long An wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Binh Thuan 1+ goals
76%
Binh Thuan 2+ goals
42%
Binh Thuan 3+ goals
17%
Long An 1+ goals
81%
Long An 2+ goals
50%
Long An 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Binh Thuan (draw refunded)
43%
Long An (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Thuan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Thuan attack 1.33 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Long An attack 0.89 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Binh Thuan scores more
33%
level
24%
Long An scores more
43%

Long An at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Binh Thuan vs Long An

Long An beat Binh Thuan 4-2 in V.League 2 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận in Ninh Thuận.