Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lonestar vs Laredo Heat — USL League Two 2026

Lonestar
Lonestar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Laredo Heat
Laredo Heat
5/25/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 5Round Rock Multipurpose Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Lonestar30%
×Draw22%
Laredo Heat48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lonestar
1.50
Laredo Heat
1.94

Laredo Heat creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lonestar
1.91
Laredo Heat
2.42

allows per match

Lonestar
1.45
Laredo Heat
1.08

finishing

Lonestar+0.00on par
Laredo Heat+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lonestar ↓

Laredo Heat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lonestar or draw
52%
Lonestar or Laredo Heat
78%
Draw or Laredo Heat
70%

Winning margin

Lonestar wins by 2+
14%
Laredo Heat wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Lonestar 1+ goals
78%
Lonestar 2+ goals
44%
Lonestar 3+ goals
19%
Laredo Heat 1+ goals
86%
Laredo Heat 2+ goals
58%
Laredo Heat 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Lonestar (draw refunded)
39%
Laredo Heat (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lonestar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Laredo Heat away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lonestar attack 1.91 + Laredo Heat defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.50

Laredo Heat attack 2.42 + Lonestar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lonestar scores more
30%
level
22%
Laredo Heat scores more
48%

Laredo Heat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Laredo Heat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Lonestar 1–2 Laredo Heat

Laredo Heat beat Lonestar 2-1 in USL League Two on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Round Rock Multipurpose Complex in Round Rock, Texas.