Laredo Heat 7–0 Lonestar: Result & Stats

Laredo Heat

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Lonestar

6/19/2025

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 13PEG Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Laredo Heat65%

×Draw17%

Lonestar18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Laredo HeatExpected goals in this matchLonestar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.38

Laredo Heat

2.71

Lonestar

1.38

Laredo Heat creates 96% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

3.17

creates per match

2.25

0.50

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Laredo Heat

3.17

Lonestar

2.25

allows per match

Laredo Heat

0.50

Lonestar

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laredo Heat+0.00on par

Lonestar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo Heat ↓

Lonestar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Laredo Heat or draw

82%

Laredo Heat or Lonestar

83%

Draw or Lonestar

35%

Winning margin

Laredo Heat wins by 2+

44%

Lonestar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Laredo Heat 1+ goals

93%

Laredo Heat 2+ goals

75%

Laredo Heat 3+ goals

50%

Lonestar 1+ goals

75%

Lonestar 2+ goals

40%

Lonestar 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Laredo Heat (draw refunded)

78%

Lonestar (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo Heat at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Lonestar away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo Heat attack 3.17 + Lonestar defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.71

Lonestar attack 2.25 + Laredo Heat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Laredo Heat scores more

65%

level

17%

Lonestar scores more

18%

Laredo Heat at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Laredo Heat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff