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Londrina vs Novorizontino — Serie B 2026

Londrina
Londrina
Preview
21:30
Novorizontino
Novorizontino
7/26/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 20
Big match
36%
Londrina
model favours
36%29%35%

Londrina score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Londrina36%
×Draw29%
Novorizontino35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Londrina
1.14
Novorizontino
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

creates per match

Londrina
1.13
Novorizontino
1.10

allows per match

Londrina
1.13
Novorizontino
1.15

finishing

Londrina-0.25scores less
Novorizontino-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Novorizontino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Londrina or draw
65%
Londrina or Novorizontino
71%
Draw or Novorizontino
64%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+
15%
Novorizontino wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals
68%
Londrina 2+ goals
32%
Londrina 3+ goals
11%
Novorizontino 1+ goals
67%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
30%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)
51%
Novorizontino (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.15 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.13 + Novorizontino defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Novorizontino attack 1.10 + Londrina defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Londrina scores more
36%
level
29%
Novorizontino scores more
35%

Londrina at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 41% of Londrina’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 32% of Novorizontino’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Londrina
Balanced
Novorizontino
Attack-heavy
46%Possession48%
76%Pass accuracy76%
12.1Shots14.5
0.98xGBiggest gap1.37
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LondrinaNovorizontino

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Londrina
1
Draws
2
Novorizontino
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
3–10–10–31–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Londrina
LDDWD
Novorizontino
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Londrina vs Novorizontino — Match Preview

Londrina face Novorizontino on July 26, 2026 in this Serie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.