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Londrina vs Guarani Campinas — Serie C 2018

Londrina
Londrina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
7/6/2025Serie CSerie C · Round 11Estádio Vitorino Gonçalves Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Londrina41%
×Draw26%
Guarani Campinas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Londrina
1.38
Guarani Campinas
1.19

Londrina creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

creates per match

Londrina
1.38
Guarani Campinas
1.42

allows per match

Londrina
0.95
Guarani Campinas
1.37

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par
Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Guarani Campinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Londrina or draw
68%
Londrina or Guarani Campinas
74%
Draw or Guarani Campinas
59%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+
19%
Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals
75%
Londrina 2+ goals
40%
Londrina 3+ goals
16%
Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
70%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
33%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)
56%
Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.38 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Guarani Campinas attack 1.42 + Londrina defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Londrina scores more
41%
level
26%
Guarani Campinas scores more
32%

Londrina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Londrina vs Guarani Campinas

Londrina and Guarani Campinas drew 1-1 in Serie C on July 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Vitorino Gonçalves Dias in Londrina.