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Guarani Campinas vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Londrina
Londrina
7/8/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 16Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Guarani Campinas48%
×Draw29%
Londrina23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani Campinas
1.29
Londrina
0.81

Guarani Campinas creates 59% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 105 away

creates per match

Guarani Campinas
1.20
Londrina
0.75

allows per match

Guarani Campinas
0.88
Londrina
1.39

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par
Londrina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Londrina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw
77%
Guarani Campinas or Londrina
71%
Draw or Londrina
52%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
22%
Londrina wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
72%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
37%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
14%
Londrina 1+ goals
56%
Londrina 2+ goals
19%
Londrina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
67%
Londrina (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.88 · 133 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.20 + Londrina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Londrina attack 0.75 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more
48%
level
29%
Londrina scores more
23%

Guarani Campinas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarani Campinas vs Londrina

Guarani Campinas beat Londrina 2-1 in Serie B on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas, São Paulo.