Londrina 1–1 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie B

Londrina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gremio

João Paulo 86' (pen)

Diego Souza 43'

10/8/2022

Serie B · Round 34Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Londrina39%

×Draw32%

Gremio29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.84

Londrina

1.02

Gremio

0.84

Londrina creates 21% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

0.68

1.00

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Londrina

1.21

Gremio

0.68

allows per match

Londrina

1.00

Gremio

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

71%

Londrina or Gremio

68%

Draw or Gremio

61%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

15%

Gremio wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

64%

Londrina 2+ goals

27%

Londrina 3+ goals

8%

Gremio 1+ goals

57%

Gremio 2+ goals

21%

Gremio 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

57%

Gremio (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 90 matches

Gremio away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.21 + Gremio defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

Gremio attack 0.68 + Londrina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Londrina scores more

39%

level

32%

Gremio scores more

29%

Londrina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Diego Souza

Gremio · F

7.9

Match Events

-5'

20'

29'

35'

43'

Diego Souza↳ Thaciano

46'

Felipe Vieira← Alan Ruschel

46'

Mossoró← Danilo

63'

Edílson

63'

Thiago Santos← Lucas Leiva

63'

Leonardo Gomes← Edílson

69'

Mirandinha← Gabriel Negueba

73'

Samuel Santos← Jeferson

74'

Nicolas← Thaciano

74'

Guilherme← Gabriel Teixeira

78'

Nádson← Gegé

80'

Lucas Silva← Bitelo

83'

Douglas CoutinhoPenalty awarded

84'

Mathias Villasanti

86'

João PauloPenalty

90+4'

Mirandinha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaGremio

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots6

4Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots6

3On Target4

5Off Target1

3Blocked1

6Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

381Total Passes324

269Accurate Passes212

71%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2