Gremio 1–0 Londrina: Result & Stats | Serie B

Gremio

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Londrina

Gabriel Teixeira 14'

6/28/2022

Serie B · Round 15Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gremio62%

×Draw24%

Londrina14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.65

Gremio

1.69

Londrina

0.65

Gremio creates 160% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 90 away

1.95

creates per match

0.76

0.53

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Gremio

1.95

Londrina

0.76

allows per match

Gremio

0.53

Londrina

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

Londrina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

86%

Gremio or Londrina

76%

Draw or Londrina

38%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

35%

Londrina wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

82%

Gremio 2+ goals

50%

Gremio 3+ goals

24%

Londrina 1+ goals

48%

Londrina 2+ goals

14%

Londrina 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

82%

Londrina (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.95 + Londrina defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.69

Londrina attack 0.76 + Gremio defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gremio scores more

62%

level

24%

Londrina scores more

14%

Gremio at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Diego Souza

Gremio · F

8.3

Match Events

14'

Gabriel Teixeira↳ Diego Souza

15'

Gabriel Teixeira

24'

Eltinho

24'

Samuel SantosGoal cancelled

37'

Mathias Villasanti

46'

Mirandinha← Douglas Coutinho

46'

Dudu← Eltinho

46'

Matheus Lucas← Alan Ruschel

67'

Augusto← Samuel Santos

68'

Elias Manoel← Janderson

69'

Gabriel Silva← J. Campaz

79'

Gabriel Silva

81'

Emerson← Gabriel Teixeira

81'

Sarará← M. Villasanti

88'

Denilson← Vilar

90'

Lucas Silva← Bitelo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioLondrina

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots14

11Corners2

26Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots14

9On Target4

4Off Target10

4Blocked0

8Inside Box7

9Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

340Total Passes420

260Accurate Passes340

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

26Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2