Londrina 2–2 Goias: Result & Stats | Serie B

Londrina

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Goias

Iago Teles 59'

Bruno Santos 33'

E. Garcia 90'

Anselmo Ramon 38'

4/1/2026

Serie B · Round 2Estádio Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Londrina39%

×Draw27%

Goias34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.19

Londrina

1.30

Goias

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

1.24

1.13

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Londrina

1.13

Goias

1.24

allows per match

Londrina

1.13

Goias

1.47

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Londrina-0.25scores less

Goias-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

66%

Londrina or Goias

73%

Draw or Goias

61%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

18%

Goias wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

73%

Londrina 2+ goals

37%

Londrina 3+ goals

14%

Goias 1+ goals

70%

Goias 2+ goals

33%

Goias 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

54%

Goias (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Goias away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.13 + Goias defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Goias attack 1.24 + Londrina defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Londrina scores more

39%

level

27%

Goias scores more

34%

Londrina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Bruno Santos

Londrina · F

8.2

Match Events

23'

32'

33'

38'

39'

42'

45'

46'

Weverton← Andre Dhominique

46'

Juninho← Baldoria

54'

Lucas Lima

59'

Iago Teles↳ Bruno Santos

60'

Iago

62'

Bruno Savio← Jean Carlos

62'

E. Garcia← Lucas Lima

65'

Lucas Marques

69'

Diego Caito← Rodrigo Soares

75'

Paulinho Moccelin← Vitinho Mota

76'

Cadu← Gege

81'

Gabriel Lacerda← Thalis

81'

Fabiano← Lucas Marques

87'

Juninho← Iago Teles

88'

Luis Fellipe

90'

E. Garcia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaGoias

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots12

1.60Expected Goals (xG)1.89

6Corners6

16Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots12

5On Target3

2Off Target4

1Blocked5

4Inside Box11

4Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

288Total Passes432

222Accurate Passes360

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.26Goals Prevented0.26

Discipline

16Fouls15

4Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0