Goias 0–1 Londrina: Result & Stats | Serie B

Goias

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Londrina

Carlos 83'

7/18/2017

Serie B · Round 15Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Goias52%

×Draw26%

Londrina22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoiasExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.91

Goias

1.54

Londrina

0.91

Goias creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

1.29

creates per match

0.86

0.95

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Goias

1.29

Londrina

0.86

allows per match

Goias

0.95

Londrina

1.80

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Goias-0.17scores less

Londrina+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Goias or draw

78%

Goias or Londrina

74%

Draw or Londrina

48%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+

27%

Londrina wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals

79%

Goias 2+ goals

45%

Goias 3+ goals

20%

Londrina 1+ goals

60%

Londrina 2+ goals

23%

Londrina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)

70%

Londrina (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.95 · 17 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.29 + Londrina defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Londrina attack 0.86 + Goias defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Goias scores more

52%

level

26%

Londrina scores more

22%

Goias at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Tiago Luis

Goias · M

7.6

Match Events

13'

Tony

18'

Safira

55'

Rômulo

62'

Carlos← Safira

63'

Jean Carlos← Toró

65'

Jardel

75'

Aylon← Tiago Luis

75'

Carlos Eduardo← Michael

76'

Elias Bidia← Romulo

80'

Gustavo

83'

Carlos↳ Jardel

89'

Aylon

90+2'

Igor Miranda← Rafael Gava

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoiasLondrina

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots12

3Corners5

10Fouls25

Shots

13Total Shots12

2On Target4

7Off Target7

4Blocked1

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

394Total Passes389

310Accurate Passes289

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls25

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2