Londrina 1–1 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Londrina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Criciuma

João Paulo 29' (pen)

Crystopher 9'

5/1/2023

Serie B · Round 4Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Londrina39%

×Draw29%

Criciuma31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.00

Londrina

1.15

Criciuma

1.00

Londrina creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

1.13

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Londrina

1.13

Criciuma

0.87

allows per match

Londrina

1.13

Criciuma

1.16

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Londrina-0.25scores less

Criciuma-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

69%

Londrina or Criciuma

71%

Draw or Criciuma

61%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

16%

Criciuma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

68%

Londrina 2+ goals

32%

Londrina 3+ goals

11%

Criciuma 1+ goals

63%

Criciuma 2+ goals

26%

Criciuma 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

55%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.13 + Criciuma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Criciuma attack 0.87 + Londrina defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Londrina scores more

39%

level

29%

Criciuma scores more

31%

Londrina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Paulinho Moccelin

Londrina · M

7.3

Match Events

9'

Crystopher↳ Rômulo

26'

João PauloPenalty confirmed

29'

João PauloPenalty

38'

Walisson Maia

43'

Diego Jardel

56'

Caio Mancha← Hugo Cabral

56'

A. Udeh← Vinicius Barata

62'

Higor Leite← Diego Jardel

63'

Tiago Marques← Lohan

63'

Ítalo Melo← Crystopher

71'

Felipe Vizeu

75'

Vinícius Jaú← Paulinho Moccelin

76'

Moisés Gaúcho← Jatobá

78'

Miqueias← Rômulo

78'

João Carlos← Felipe Vizeu

88'

Jonathan← Cristovam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaCriciuma

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots18

6Corners4

19Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots18

1On Target3

8Off Target11

4Blocked4

9Inside Box11

4Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

353Total Passes412

251Accurate Passes310

71%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4