Londrina 1–1 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Londrina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Criciuma

Denilson 42'

Vilar 26' (OG)

7/30/2022

Serie B · Round 21Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Londrina39%

×Draw29%

Criciuma31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.00

Londrina

1.15

Criciuma

1.00

Londrina creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

1.13

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Londrina

1.13

Criciuma

0.87

allows per match

Londrina

1.13

Criciuma

1.16

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Londrina-0.25scores less

Criciuma-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

69%

Londrina or Criciuma

71%

Draw or Criciuma

61%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

16%

Criciuma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

68%

Londrina 2+ goals

32%

Londrina 3+ goals

11%

Criciuma 1+ goals

63%

Criciuma 2+ goals

26%

Criciuma 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

55%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.13 + Criciuma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Criciuma attack 0.87 + Londrina defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Londrina scores more

39%

level

29%

Criciuma scores more

31%

Londrina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Denilson

Londrina · D

7.3

Match Events

13'

Cristovam

26'

VilarOwn goal

32'

Fellipe Mateus← Arilson

33'

Denilson

42'

Denilson↳ Caprini

46'

Mandaca← Denilson

49'

Gustavo Cazonatti

51'

Helder Santos

59'

Saimon

63'

Matheus Lucas← Gabriel Negueba

71'

Mirandinha← Douglas Coutinho

76'

Marcos Serrato← Gustavo

76'

Lucas← Thiago Alagoano

82'

Jhonny Lucas

90+2'

Zé Marcos← Marquinhos Gabriel

90+2'

Hygor← Lohan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaCriciuma

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots4

4Corners1

20Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots4

2On Target1

7Off Target2

5Blocked1

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box1

Passing

44%Possession56%

348Total Passes448

245Accurate Passes337

70%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

Serie B: Londrina 1–1 Criciuma

Londrina and Criciuma drew 1-1 in Serie B on July 30, 2022.

Goals: Vilar (26' o.g.), Denilson (42').

Criciuma controlled possession (56%) and registered 4 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff in Londrina, Paraná.

Londrina vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Londrina 1–1 Criciuma