Londrina 1–2 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats | Serie B

Londrina

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Botafogo SP

Paulinho Moccelin 22'

Edson 90+8'

Salatiel 45+6'

7/24/2023

Serie B · Round 19Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Londrina49%

×Draw26%

Botafogo SP25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.98

Londrina

1.51

Botafogo SP

0.98

Londrina creates 54% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 42 away

1.33

creates per match

0.79

1.17

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Londrina

1.33

Botafogo SP

0.79

allows per match

Londrina

1.17

Botafogo SP

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

75%

Londrina or Botafogo SP

74%

Draw or Botafogo SP

51%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

25%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

78%

Londrina 2+ goals

44%

Londrina 3+ goals

19%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

62%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

26%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

67%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.33 + Botafogo SP defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51

Botafogo SP attack 0.79 + Londrina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Londrina scores more

49%

level

26%

Botafogo SP scores more

25%

Londrina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Salatiel

Botafogo SP · F

7.3

Match Events

22'

Paulinho Moccelin↳ João Paulo

26'

Guilherme Madruga

28'

Ariel← Diego Jardel

35'

Tarik Boschetti

38'

Victor Hugo← Moisés Gaúcho

39'

Ezequiel

45+6'

Salatiel↳ Patrick Brey

46'

Edson← Lucas Cardoso

46'

Pedro Rodrigues← Tárik

60'

Lucas Dias Costa

67'

Iago Dias

70'

Júnior Dutra← Zé Santos

70'

Léo Morais← Ezequiel

70'

A. Udeh← Ariel

75'

Luiz HenriqueCard upgrade

76'

Luiz Henrique

77'

Gustavo Xuxa← Luiz Henrique

82'

Patrick Brey

87'

Edson Caríus← Salatiel

90+11'

Paulinho Moccelin

90'

Ivonei← Osman

90+8'

Edson↳ Edson Caríus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaBotafogo

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots17

5Corners11

23Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots17

1On Target3

4Off Target5

6Blocked9

1Inside Box10

10Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

411Total Passes295

315Accurate Passes204

77%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

23Fouls18

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2