Londrina 1–1 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats | Serie B

Londrina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Botafogo SP

Paulinho Moccelin 79'

Henan 40'

11/16/2019

Serie B · Round 36Estadio do Cafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Londrina51%

×Draw26%

Botafogo SP23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.95

Londrina

1.53

Botafogo SP

0.95

Londrina creates 61% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

1.37

creates per match

0.79

1.11

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Londrina

1.37

Botafogo SP

0.79

allows per match

Londrina

1.11

Botafogo SP

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

77%

Londrina or Botafogo SP

74%

Draw or Botafogo SP

49%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

26%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

78%

Londrina 2+ goals

45%

Londrina 3+ goals

20%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

61%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

25%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

68%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.37 + Botafogo SP defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

Botafogo SP attack 0.79 + Londrina defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Londrina scores more

51%

level

26%

Botafogo SP scores more

23%

Londrina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

César

Londrina · G

7.9

Match Events

17'

Germano

37'

Marlon Freitas

40'

Henan↳ Marlon Freitas

43'

Anderson Leite

59'

Matheusinho← Léo Passos

61'

Felipe Saraiva← Bruno José

68'

Pedro Cacho← Anderson Leite

73'

Lucas Mendes← Lucas Marques

79'

Paulinho Moccelin↳ Matheusinho

80'

Emerson

82'

Victor Daniel← Paulinho Moccelin

87'

Higor← Henan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaBotafogo

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots16

4Corners3

12Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots16

5On Target8

12Off Target7

1Blocked1

3Inside Box10

15Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

433Total Passes325

318Accurate Passes226

73%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2