Londrina 1–1 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

Londrina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Avai

Iago Dias 12'

Fellipe Bastos 65'

10/15/2023

Serie B · Round 32Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Londrina40%

×Draw28%

Avai32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.07

Londrina

1.22

Avai

1.07

Londrina creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

1.13

creates per match

1.02

1.13

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Londrina

1.13

Avai

1.02

allows per match

Londrina

1.13

Avai

1.31

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Londrina-0.25scores less

Avai-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

68%

Londrina or Avai

72%

Draw or Avai

60%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

17%

Avai wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

70%

Londrina 2+ goals

34%

Londrina 3+ goals

12%

Avai 1+ goals

66%

Avai 2+ goals

29%

Avai 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

55%

Avai (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Avai away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.13 + Avai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Avai attack 1.02 + Londrina defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Londrina scores more

40%

level

28%

Avai scores more

32%

Londrina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Igor Bohn

Avai · G

8.5

Match Events

12'

Iago Dias↳ William Barbio

45+5'

Gustavo Salomão

48'

Victor Hugo← João Paulo

56'

Jael← Waguininho

64'

Fellipe Bastos← Rafael Gava

64'

Gaspar← Giovanni

64'

Bruno Cortez← Natanael

65'

Fabrício Baiano← Ariel

65'

Garraty← Rodrigo

65'

Fellipe Bastos

77'

Peu← William Barbio

77'

Brandão← Iago Dias

82'

Jean Cléber← Gabriel Poveda

87'

Thales

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaAvai

Overview

36%Possession64%

20Total Shots15

10Corners3

13Fouls7

Shots

20Total Shots15

12On Target3

5Off Target6

3Blocked6

13Inside Box3

7Outside Box12

Passing

36%Possession64%

252Total Passes499

187Accurate Passes423

74%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

13Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Londrina vs Avai

Londrina and Avai drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 15, 2023.

Goals: Iago Dias (12'), Fellipe Bastos (65').

Avai controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff in Londrina, Paraná.

Londrina vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Londrina vs Avai