Avai 2–0 Londrina: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avai

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Londrina

J. Copete 67'

Lourenço 55'

9/28/2021

Serie B · Round 27Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Avai53%

×Draw25%

Londrina21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.89

Avai

1.57

Londrina

0.89

Avai creates 76% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

1.34

creates per match

0.86

0.91

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Avai

1.34

Londrina

0.86

allows per match

Avai

0.91

Londrina

1.80

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Avai-0.10scores less

Londrina+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Avai or draw

79%

Avai or Londrina

75%

Draw or Londrina

47%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

28%

Londrina wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

79%

Avai 2+ goals

46%

Avai 3+ goals

21%

Londrina 1+ goals

59%

Londrina 2+ goals

22%

Londrina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

71%

Londrina (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 21 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.34 + Londrina defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.57

Londrina attack 0.86 + Avai defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Avai scores more

53%

level

25%

Londrina scores more

21%

Avai at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

J. Copete

Avai · M

7.7

Match Events

12'

18'

39'

45'

55'

57'

58'

Rômulo← Vinícius Leite

59'

Jádson← Valdívia

66'

Roberto← Luiz Henrique

67'

Gegé← Marcelo Freitas

67'

J. Copete

68'

João Lucas← Edílson

76'

Júnior Pirambu← Salatiel

76'

Caprini← Marcelinho

78'

Renato← Getúlio

78'

Wesley Soares← Lourenço

80'

Renato

82'

Jhonny Lucas

90'

Jean Henrique← Jhonny Lucas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiLondrina

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots6

5Corners3

18Fouls23

Shots

14Total Shots6

2On Target1

10Off Target4

2Blocked1

5Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

442Total Passes375

364Accurate Passes278

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls23

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3

Avai 2 – 0 Londrina

Avai beat Londrina 2-0 in Serie B on September 28, 2021.

Goals: Lourenço (55'), J. Copete (67').

Avai controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Avai vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Avai 2 – 0 Londrina