Londrina 4–1 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Londrina

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

Paulinho Moccelin 64'

Dagoberto 54' (pen), 45', 10'

Renato Kayzer 84'

8/31/2018

Serie B · Round 24Estadio do Cafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Londrina40%

×Draw27%

Atletico Goianiense33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.18

Londrina

1.32

Atletico Goianiense

1.18

Londrina creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

1.23

1.13

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Londrina

1.13

Atletico Goianiense

1.23

allows per match

Londrina

1.13

Atletico Goianiense

1.51

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Londrina-0.25scores less

Atletico Goianiense-0.30scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

67%

Londrina or Atletico Goianiense

73%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

60%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

18%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

73%

Londrina 2+ goals

38%

Londrina 3+ goals

15%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

69%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

55%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.51 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.13 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.23 + Londrina defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Londrina scores more

40%

level

27%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

33%

Londrina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Dagoberto↳ Felipe Marques

13'

37'

45'

46'

53'

54'

DagobertoPenalty

57'

Luizão← Lucas Costa

59'

Tomas Bastos← Fernandes

64'

Paulinho Moccelin↳ Jardel

66'

Dudú← Higor Leite

70'

Matheus Mascarenhas← Júlio César

73'

Alan

78'

Jô← Felipe Marques

84'

Renato Kayzer↳ Tomas Bastos

87'

Tomas Bastos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaAtletico

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots10

5Corners9

9Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots10

7On Target3

5Off Target4

4Blocked3

8Inside Box6

8Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

423Total Passes422

352Accurate Passes359

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides6