Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Londrina: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Londrina

Rodrigo Soares 75'

Renato 15'

Caio Mancha 79'

5/8/2023

Serie B · Round 5Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Atletico Goianiense58%

×Draw24%

Londrina18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.86

Atletico Goianiense

1.73

Londrina

0.86

Atletico Goianiense creates 101% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.65

creates per match

0.86

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.65

Londrina

0.86

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.86

Londrina

1.80

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.36scores less

Londrina+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

82%

Atletico Goianiense or Londrina

76%

Draw or Londrina

42%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

33%

Londrina wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

82%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

52%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

25%

Londrina 1+ goals

58%

Londrina 2+ goals

21%

Londrina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

76%

Londrina (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.65 + Londrina defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Londrina attack 0.86 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

58%

level

24%

Londrina scores more

18%

Atletico Goianiense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Rodrigo Soares

Atletico Goianiense · D

8.0

Match Events

7'

Gabriel← Da Silva

15'

Renato↳ Rodrigo Soares

16'

Airton

22'

Carlos Jatobá

24'

Moisés Gaúcho← Jatobá

35'

João Paulo

42'

Matheus Régis← Gustavo Coutinho

46'

Caio Mancha← João Paulo

62'

Gabriel

63'

Igor Torres← Luiz Fernando

64'

Bruno Tubarão← Shaylon

66'

Moisés

66'

Hugo Cabral← Iago Dias

66'

A. Udeh← Matheus Lucas

75'

Rodrigo Soares↳ Bruno Tubarão

79'

Caio Mancha↳ Paulinho Moccelin

82'

Emerson Santos← Matheus Régis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoLondrina

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots12

5Corners12

14Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots12

4On Target2

2Off Target8

2Blocked2

5Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

328Total Passes460

250Accurate Passes374

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls15

0Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1