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London City Lionesses W vs Liverpool W — FA WSL 2018

London City Lionesses W
London City Lionesses W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Liverpool W
Liverpool W
10/5/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 5Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

London City Lionesses W45%
×Draw25%
Liverpool W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

London City Lionesses W
1.59
Liverpool W
1.25

London City Lionesses W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 64 away

creates per match

London City Lionesses W
1.45
Liverpool W
1.05

allows per match

London City Lionesses W
1.45
Liverpool W
1.73

finishing

London City Lionesses W+0.00on par
Liverpool W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

London City Lionesses W ↓

Liverpool W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

London City Lionesses W or draw
70%
London City Lionesses W or Liverpool W
75%
Draw or Liverpool W
55%

Winning margin

London City Lionesses W wins by 2+
23%
Liverpool W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

London City Lionesses W 1+ goals
80%
London City Lionesses W 2+ goals
47%
London City Lionesses W 3+ goals
21%
Liverpool W 1+ goals
71%
Liverpool W 2+ goals
36%
Liverpool W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

London City Lionesses W (draw refunded)
60%
Liverpool W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

London City Lionesses W at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Liverpool W away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.73 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

London City Lionesses W attack 1.45 + Liverpool W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Liverpool W attack 1.05 + London City Lionesses W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

London City Lionesses W scores more
45%
level
25%
Liverpool W scores more
30%

London City Lionesses W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "London City Lionesses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: London City Lionesses W 1–0 Liverpool W

London City Lionesses W beat Liverpool W 1-0 in FA WSL on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.