Liverpool W 0–0 London City Lionesses W

Liverpool W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

London City Lionesses W

1/11/2026

FA WSL · Round 12St Helens Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Liverpool W44%

×Draw25%

London City Lionesses W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool WExpected goals in this matchLondon City Lionesses W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.25

Liverpool W

1.53

London City Lionesses W

1.25

Liverpool W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 11 away

1.33

creates per match

1.09

1.41

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Liverpool W

1.33

London City Lionesses W

1.09

allows per match

Liverpool W

1.41

London City Lionesses W

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool W+0.00on par

London City Lionesses W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool W ↓

London City Lionesses W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Liverpool W or draw

69%

Liverpool W or London City Lionesses W

75%

Draw or London City Lionesses W

56%

Winning margin

Liverpool W wins by 2+

22%

London City Lionesses W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Liverpool W 1+ goals

78%

Liverpool W 2+ goals

45%

Liverpool W 3+ goals

20%

London City Lionesses W 1+ goals

71%

London City Lionesses W 2+ goals

36%

London City Lionesses W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Liverpool W (draw refunded)

58%

London City Lionesses W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

London City Lionesses W away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool W attack 1.33 + London City Lionesses W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

London City Lionesses W attack 1.09 + Liverpool W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Liverpool W scores more

44%

level

25%

London City Lionesses W scores more

31%

Liverpool W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Liverpool W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff