Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lommel U21 vs Lierse K. U21 — League #518 2026

Lommel U21
Lommel U21
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lierse K. U21
Lierse K. U21
11/10/2023League #518League #518 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lommel U2174%
×Draw15%
Lierse K. U2111%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lommel U21
2.79
Lierse K. U21
1.00

Lommel U21 creates 179% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lommel U21
2.33
Lierse K. U21
1.00

allows per match

Lommel U21
1.00
Lierse K. U21
3.25

finishing

Lommel U21+0.00on par
Lierse K. U21+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lommel U21 ↓

Lierse K. U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lommel U21 or draw
89%
Lommel U21 or Lierse K. U21
85%
Draw or Lierse K. U21
26%

Winning margin

Lommel U21 wins by 2+
53%
Lierse K. U21 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lommel U21 1+ goals
94%
Lommel U21 2+ goals
76%
Lommel U21 3+ goals
52%
Lierse K. U21 1+ goals
63%
Lierse K. U21 2+ goals
26%
Lierse K. U21 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lommel U21 (draw refunded)
87%
Lierse K. U21 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lommel U21 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Lierse K. U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lommel U21 attack 2.33 + Lierse K. U21 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.79

Lierse K. U21 attack 1.00 + Lommel U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Lommel U21 scores more
74%
level
15%
Lierse K. U21 scores more
11%

Lommel U21 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Lommel U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #518: Lommel U21 3–1 Lierse K. U21

Lommel U21 beat Lierse K. U21 3-1 in League #518 on November 10, 2023.