Lierse K. U21 2–4 Lommel U21: Result & Stats

Lierse K. U21

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Lommel U21

B. Saif-Eddine 50'

L. Beirinckx 21' (OG)

N. Nieki 86'

F. Kujovic 84'

N. Yakassongo 67'

D. Gijbels 65'

5/15/2026

League #518 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lierse K. U2120%

×Draw15%

Lommel U2165%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lierse K. U21Expected goals in this matchLommel U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

3.75

Lierse K. U21

2.13

Lommel U21

3.75

Lommel U21 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

3.50

4.00

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Lierse K. U21

2.00

Lommel U21

3.50

allows per match

Lierse K. U21

4.00

Lommel U21

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lierse K. U21+0.00on par

Lommel U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lierse K. U21 ↓

Lommel U21 →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–33%

0–43%

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Lierse K. U21 or draw

35%

Lierse K. U21 or Lommel U21

85%

Draw or Lommel U21

80%

Winning margin

Lierse K. U21 wins by 2+

10%

Lommel U21 wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Lierse K. U21 1+ goals

88%

Lierse K. U21 2+ goals

63%

Lierse K. U21 3+ goals

35%

Lommel U21 1+ goals

97%

Lommel U21 2+ goals

88%

Lommel U21 3+ goals

70%

Draw no bet

Lierse K. U21 (draw refunded)

23%

Lommel U21 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lierse K. U21 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

Lommel U21 away — creates 3.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lierse K. U21 attack 2.00 + Lommel U21 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Lommel U21 attack 3.50 + Lierse K. U21 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lierse K. U21 scores more

20%

level

15%

Lommel U21 scores more

65%

Lommel U21 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lommel U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

L. BeirinckxOwn goal

50'

65'

67'

84'

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff