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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Shukura — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisiadvanced
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shukura
Shukura
7/22/2023David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi26%
×Draw30%
Shukura44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.85
Shukura
1.20

Shukura creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.20
Shukura
1.00

allows per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.40
Shukura
0.50

finishing

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotivi Tbilisi ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or draw
56%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi or Shukura
70%
Draw or Shukura
74%

Winning margin

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
9%
Shukura wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
57%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
21%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
5%
Shukura 1+ goals
70%
Shukura 2+ goals
34%
Shukura 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
37%
Shukura (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Shukura away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.20 + Shukura defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Shukura attack 1.00 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
26%
level
30%
Shukura scores more
44%

Shukura at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Shukura

Lokomotivi Tbilisi and Shukura drew 0-0 in David Kipiani Cup on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani in Tbilisi.