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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shukura
Shukura
8/7/2021Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 11Saguramos Sapekhburto Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi47%
×Draw24%
Shukura29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.69
Shukura
1.27

Lokomotivi Tbilisi creates 33% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 36 away

creates per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.19
Shukura
0.86

allows per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.68
Shukura
2.19

finishing

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotivi Tbilisi ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or draw
71%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi or Shukura
76%
Draw or Shukura
53%

Winning margin

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
25%
Shukura wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
82%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
50%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
24%
Shukura 1+ goals
72%
Shukura 2+ goals
36%
Shukura 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
62%
Shukura (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 63 matches

Shukura away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.19 + Shukura defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.69

Shukura attack 0.86 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
47%
level
24%
Shukura scores more
29%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1–0 Shukura

Lokomotivi Tbilisi beat Shukura 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Saguramos Sapekhburto Kompleksi in Saguramo.