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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi II — Liga 3 2024

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
4/2/2026Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 4Mikheil Meskhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi33%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Tbilisi II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.21
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.38

Dinamo Tbilisi II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.13
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.14

allows per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.63
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.29

finishing

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotivi Tbilisi ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or draw
59%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi or Dinamo Tbilisi II
74%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi II
67%

Winning margin

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
70%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
34%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
45%
Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.13 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.14 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
33%
level
26%
Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
41%

Dinamo Tbilisi II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1–1 Dinamo Tbilisi II

Lokomotivi Tbilisi and Dinamo Tbilisi II drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium in Tbilisi.