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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi II — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
8/11/2025Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 18Mikheil Meskhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi51%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Tbilisi II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.92
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.35

Lokomotivi Tbilisi creates 42% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 56 away

creates per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.76
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.34

allows per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.37
Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.07

finishing

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotivi Tbilisi ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or draw
73%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi or Dinamo Tbilisi II
78%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi II
49%

Winning margin

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
29%
Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
57%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
30%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
39%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
65%
Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.34 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
51%
level
22%
Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
27%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi II

Lokomotivi Tbilisi beat Dinamo Tbilisi II 4-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on August 11, 2025.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium in Tbilisi.