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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Chikhura Sachkhere — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
9/9/2020Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 6Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi39%
×Draw26%
Chikhura Sachkhere35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.38
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.19
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.93

allows per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.68
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.57

finishing

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotivi Tbilisi ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or draw
65%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi or Chikhura Sachkhere
74%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
61%

Winning margin

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
18%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
75%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
40%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
16%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
73%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
37%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
52%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 63 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.19 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.93 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
39%
level
26%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
35%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Chikhura Sachkhere

Lokomotivi Tbilisi beat Chikhura Sachkhere 4-1 in Erovnuli Liga on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani in Tbilisi.