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Chikhura Sachkhere vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
8/24/2019Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 25Tsentraluri Stadioni (Ivantsminda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere44%
×Draw24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.69
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.44

Chikhura Sachkhere creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 63 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.43
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.33

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.54
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.95

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
67%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Lokomotivi Tbilisi
76%
Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi
56%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
23%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
82%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
50%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
76%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
42%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
57%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.95 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.43 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.33 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
44%
level
24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
33%

Chikhura Sachkhere at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chikhura Sachkhere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Chikhura Sachkhere 3–2 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

Chikhura Sachkhere beat Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3-2 in Erovnuli Liga on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni (Ivantsminda).