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Lokomotivi Tbilisi II vs Borjomi — Liga 3 2024

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Borjomi
Borjomi
4/24/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II51%
×Draw21%
Borjomi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
2.06
Borjomi
1.47

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
1.63
Borjomi
1.07

allows per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
1.87
Borjomi
2.50

finishing

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II+0.00on par
Borjomi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II ↓

Borjomi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II or draw
72%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II or Borjomi
79%
Draw or Borjomi
49%

Winning margin

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II wins by 2+
30%
Borjomi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 1+ goals
87%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 2+ goals
61%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 3+ goals
34%
Borjomi 1+ goals
77%
Borjomi 2+ goals
43%
Borjomi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
65%
Borjomi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Borjomi away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II attack 1.63 + Borjomi defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Borjomi attack 1.07 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II scores more
51%
level
21%
Borjomi scores more
28%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 3–1 Borjomi

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II beat Borjomi 3-1 in Liga 3 on April 24, 2025.