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Borjomi vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi II — Liga 3 2024

Borjomi
Borjomi
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
9/25/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Borjomi45%
×Draw24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borjomi
1.72
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
1.40

Borjomi creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Borjomi
1.10
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
1.37

allows per match

Borjomi
1.43
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
2.33

finishing

Borjomi+0.00on par
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borjomi ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Borjomi or draw
69%
Borjomi or Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
76%
Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
55%

Winning margin

Borjomi wins by 2+
24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Borjomi 1+ goals
82%
Borjomi 2+ goals
51%
Borjomi 3+ goals
25%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 1+ goals
75%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 2+ goals
41%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Borjomi (draw refunded)
59%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borjomi at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borjomi attack 1.10 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II attack 1.37 + Borjomi defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Borjomi scores more
45%
level
24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II scores more
31%

Borjomi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Borjomi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Borjomi 3–2 Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

Borjomi beat Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 3-2 in Liga 3 on September 25, 2025.